Why The Coronavirus May Be Causing a Recession
While I am no conspiracy theorist, my contrarian views in predicting strange cultural trends land greater than 50/50 accuracy. It’s as simple as spotting data trends and their behavioral correlations.
So how is it possible that a strain of flu virus — which kills less people than the actual flu — is causing a global recession? Highly networked soundbite media.
When we are given enough daily soundbites on a topic it imprints heavily on the culture. We no longer read long form or ask questions about sources; we’re in an age where media can create mass behavior change quickly. And I’m not sure how I feel about that.
Media sensationalism can create a panic, if they try hard enough. We change our plans, cancel our events, stockpile our supplies.
When American shipping companies stopped sending us products from China, I was annoyed. We lose January to Chinese New Year each year, so deleting February is bad for everyone’s business. I, for example, just needed some corporate branded pens.
I thought about the cultural effects when Americans soon discover exactly how much we rely on China. Worse, we could run low on consumer goods, which would lead to a recession. However, as of last Friday (March 6) I received notice that global trade was back at 100%. Yay. Until…
During the course of the next 48 hours — and while markets were closed — oil cartels tanked gas prices [because of Putin] and news media reported it as from the shockingly low consumption due to cancelled travel plans over Corona. The Corona hysteria was merely a coincidence (maybe?) that Putin wants a trade war.
By market open, the forecast look like chicken scratch. Interest rates swung to negative overnight, despite financial consensus that such a thing would never happen.
So as it turns out, the human side of things — the collective sensationalism — began appearing as the cause for a global recession, after all.
And, why?
Corona virus suddenly made sense to me this morning. In November of 2019, the President asked the Federal Reserve to drop interest rates into negative territory just long enough to refinance American debt. I thought that was a curious approach.
On March 9 of 2020, financial analysts collectively predict negative interest rates after claiming prior to this that it could never happen.
Trump has been our greatest President yet in terms of controlling the media; at a time when media’s control over our culture is at an all-time high. It’s impressive, to say the least.
How long will recession predictions last? Quite possibly just long enough to refinance our country’s debt. I hope I’m correct. Otherwise the average American is in for dark skies and turbulence.
Jessica Higgins, JD MBA BB is a highly credentialed and experienced business growth consultant who has consulted seven of the Fortune 100 companies, won national awards for her marketing and written a best selling business book. She gets involved in unique opportunities at the crossroads of finance, technology, and marketing to create innovative growth. She holds investment and advisory positions in a portfolio of companies and is a published author who writes about her business and personal passions. She lives in Charleston, SC and occasionally in Miami and Los Angeles. Her growth accelerator, The Research and Innovation Institute, can be found HERE.
For all requests contact PR@curateadvise.com
